September 2026 Shipping and Logistics Review: What to Watch in October

Freight markets entered October with an uneven outlook. Ocean rate benchmarks moved in opposite directions, carriers adjusted services around disruption and holiday schedules, and air cargo demand outpaced capacity in the latest available figures. For Indian exporters, destination transport and documentation remain as important as the main freight booking.

This September briefing brings together the principal developments affecting international shipment planning, with a focus on India, Europe, the United States, the Middle East and Africa. The October outlook below is analysis based on the dated sources cited throughout.

1. Ocean rates diverge across trades

Drewry's World Container Index fell 1% to USD 4,468 per 40-foot container on 24 September. Its Intra-Asia Container Index rose 6% to USD 1,491 in the same week, illustrating how differently individual trades can move.

For October bookings, the relevant comparison is the quotation for the specific route, equipment and sailing window. Exporters should check charge inclusions and rate validity before using a market benchmark to negotiate or cost a shipment.

Source: Drewry, 24 September 2026. https://www.drewry.co.uk/trackers-and-indices

2. Blank sailings add another variable to October bookings

In its 25 September assessment, Drewry expected 58 blank sailings among 712 planned departures across major East-West trades during weeks 40 to 44, covering 28 September to 1 November. The figures describe scheduled cancellations expected over that period.

A cancelled departure can affect both the first sailing and subsequent connections. Shippers with fixed delivery commitments should confirm that the intended departure is operating and identify an alternative if the cargo cannot move as booked.

Source: Drewry, 25 September 2026. https://www.drewry.co.uk/trackers-and-indices

3. Suez changes remain limited to selected services

Maersk's 9 September Europe update reported targeted Suez routing changes for AE19 and AE15 with Hapag-Lloyd. The carrier said these did not represent a wider return of its East-West network and described the security situation as unpredictable.

October transit planning therefore depends on the actual service booked. Shippers should verify current routing and connecting departures before promising delivery dates, as later operational notices may alter the arrangements.

Source: Maersk Europe market update, 9 September 2026. https://www.maersk.com/news/articles/2026/09/09/europe-market-update-september

4. Golden Week and Rhine conditions complicate connections

China's early October Golden Week period was a planning concern in Maersk's September Europe update, which highlighted factory closures and reduced staffing. The same update reported low Rhine water levels affecting barge capacity in Germany and the Netherlands.

Businesses moving cargo through these markets should align supplier reopening dates and document cutoffs with available transport. Inland capacity deserves particular attention where a European delivery depends on barge connections.

Source: Maersk Europe market update, 9 September 2026. https://www.maersk.com/news/articles/2026/09/09/europe-market-update-september

5. US inland delivery faces peak-season pressure

Maersk's North America update, published on 9 September, described tightening US drayage conditions and expected elevated terminal dwell and congestion through September and early October. Chicago, Atlanta, Fort Worth and Memphis were among the inland hubs identified.

For India-to-USA shipments, destination trucking, chassis and rail arrangements should be confirmed alongside ocean space. Pickup responsibility and free-time terms can materially affect the final delivery plan and cost.

Source: Maersk North America market update, 9 September 2026. https://www.maersk.com/news/articles/2026/09/09/north-america-market-update-september

6. Middle East conditions affect onward movement

Continuing disruption was influencing shipping services, cargo acceptance and routing in Maersk's 9 September India, Middle East and Africa update. The carrier also reported extended container collection and truck turnaround times at Jeddah and King Abdullah Port amid elevated cargo flows.

October shipments through affected markets need current acceptance checks and coordinated clearance and collection plans. For temperature-sensitive goods, any alternative routing should account for transfer conditions and suitable storage.

Source: Maersk IMEA market update, 9 September 2026. https://www.maersk.com/news/articles/2026/09/09/india-middle-east-and-africa-market-update-september

7. African export seasons bring equipment into focus

Cocoa exporters in Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Cameroon and Nigeria were preparing for initial seasonal shipments in October, according to Maersk's September update. Food-grade containers were a priority. Mango shipments were also expected from October, while South African grape exports were expected to begin in early November.

Seasonal activity may increase competition for suitable equipment and bookings. Early forecasts help align container condition, cargo readiness and destination documentation. Reefer movements also require agreement on temperatures, loading dates and onward handling.

Source: Maersk IMEA market update, 9 September 2026. https://www.maersk.com/news/articles/2026/09/09/india-middle-east-and-africa-market-update-september

8. Air cargo demand outpaces capacity

IATA's latest figures, released on 29 September, showed global air cargo demand increasing 4.4% year on year in August 2026, measured in cargo tonne-kilometres. Available capacity declined 0.1% over the same period. The reporting month is August.

That balance makes early space planning relevant as the year-end peak approaches. Urgent and pharmaceutical shipments need confirmed flight options, suitable handling and workable connections. Actual pricing will depend on the route and booking conditions.

Source: IATA, 29 September 2026. https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/2026-releases/09-29-air-cargo-demand-grows-august/

9. Dangerous goods controls remain a supply-chain priority

On 24 September, IATA called for stronger controls throughout the air cargo supply chain to address undeclared and incorrectly declared dangerous goods. It highlighted concealed lithium batteries, aerosols and other hazardous products, stressing that security screening alone cannot resolve the risk.

The announcement reinforces the importance of accurate product information and acceptance checks before collection. Electronics, battery and chemical shipments should have their classification and supporting documentation resolved early. IATA's statement is a safety call, rather than a new blanket ban.

Source: IATA, 24 September 2026. https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/2026-releases/09-24-cargo-screening-alone-cannot-solve-undeclared-dangerous-goods-risk/

10. EU steel traceability requirements take effect on 1 October

A documentation change announced by the European Commission on 31 August applies from 1 October 2026. Importers of steel products covered by the EU Steel Regulation must declare the country of melt and pour and provide supporting evidence. The Commission specifies the Mill Test Certificate and conditions for other evidence.

Indian exporters of covered products should coordinate with their European importer and customs representative before dispatch. Documentation needs to establish the country of melt and pour and the heat number. Checking applicability and evidence early can help avoid clearance problems.

Source: European Commission, 31 August 2026. https://policy.trade.ec.europa.eu/news/commission-sets-type-evidence-be-provided-importers-prove-country-melt-and-pour-steel-products-2026-08-31_en

11. Kandla green methanol project marks a longer-term development

The Government of India's Press Information Bureau reported the foundation-stone ceremony for a port-based e-methanol plant at Deendayal Port in Kandla on 26 September. The planned facility has a capacity of 150 tonnes per day across phases, with announced completion targets in January and March 2027.

The project is a development to watch in India's maritime fuel supply chain. Its announced timeline places potential operational benefits beyond October. Any greener shipping proposal for an immediate shipment should still be assessed against the actual service and supporting emissions information.

Source: Government of India, Press Information Bureau, 26 September 2026. https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleseDetailm.aspx?PRID=2315327&lang=2&reg=48

What exporters and importers should prioritise in October

The practical priority is to connect each part of the shipment plan: cargo readiness, available equipment, operating departures, destination paperwork and inland delivery. Review quotation validity and free time, and agree who will act when a schedule or routing changes.

Facing a shipping or logistics problem? Contact us with your cargo, origin, destination and required timeline. Let's work towards a practical solution.

Email: sales@skystarshipping.com https://skystarshipping.com/contact

Source review completed on 1 October 2026. Operational conditions may change after the dates cited. October commentary is planning analysis, not a forecast of guaranteed rates or transit times.